Chua’s exit leaves Liow nearer a win?

By Alan Ting

KUALA LUMPUR:  The decision by MCA president Dr Chua Soi Lek not to defend his presidency has probably given his alienated deputy Liow Tiong Lai the upperhand in the race for the party’s top post.

So far, apart from Liow, former MCA president Ong Tee Keat and party vice-president Gan Peng Shieu have also announced their intention to contest the top post at the party election in Dec 21.

Party delegates have already begun touting “either you follow the car with the plate number 15 (Liow’s official car number when he was the Health minister) or use GPS (referring to Gan Peng Shieu’s acronym) to find your direction”.

Dr Chua’s decision to give up the party presidency means his diehard supporters who represent a significant portion of the delegates are now divided in choosing a new leader.

“Dr Chua’s supporters are most likely to go their own way in making their choice.  Even if Dr Chua wants them to vote for certain candidate, not all of his supporters will abide by his call as he is not contesting,” said former Sabah MCA Youth chief and Liow’s strong supporter Chew Kok Woh.

Chew went on to explain, with Ong joining the fray Dr Chua’s supporters are likely to make a hard decision in choosing between Ong or Gan as both  share the same support base.

Gan used to be Ong’s staunch supporter and one of his key lieutenants when the former was the party president.

“The vote from Dr Chua’s camp will be split between the two if Tee Keat (Ong) does not withdraw. Gan cannot depend on the Dr Chua’s supporters to back him up as not all of them will support him. This would work towards Liow’s advantange,” added Chew.

Based on the previous party election result in 2010 and the recently concluded Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) to censure Liow, Dr Chua has been able to maintain his solid support from about 900 delegates while Liow on the other hand has solid support from about 800 delegates.

The remaining are either the supporters of Ong,  party vice-president Donald Lim or another former MCA president Ong Ka Ting and his brother Ong Ka Chuan.

Crucial votes

Earlier, in 2010 party election, Dr Chua won the presidency with 901 votes, defeating Ka Ting and Ong in a three-corner contest. Ka Ting received 833 votes while Ong finished third with 578 votes.

Therefore, with the same EGM delegates voting in the party election on Dec 21, Dr Chua’s 900 solid votes is seen crucial in deciding the winner in this year party election.

However, the question now is whether Dr Chua could influence his supporters on who they should support?

In total, MCA has about 2,385 delegates for the Dec 21 party election.

A party insider said assuming that the turnout at the party election is about 90%, which means 2,280 delegates turning out to cast their votes, Liow would only need a minimun of 1,141 votes to be the next party president.

This means he only needs another 300 over votes.

“This is not difficult to achieve. As Dr Chua is not in the race, many of these delegates, especially those not aligned to any group as well as some of Dr Chua’s supporters will find a new leader to support.

“Therefore, it is only natural for them to choose Liow because now he has the advantage to win the race. That is the politics,” explained former MCA vice-president Yap Pian Hon.

On the other hand, Yap said it would be hard for Liow if Dr Chua was contesting, even if there were three or four contenders for the same post as Dr Chua’s supporters would give him their solid backing.

“Now it is a totally a different ball game. With Dr Chua out of the picture, Liow clearly has the upperhand as most of the support will go to him,” he added.

Liow has strong support

MCA Permatang Pauh division chairman Ma Kok Ben said some of Dr Chua’s supporters in Penang have already been showing their support for Liow after Dr Chua announced that he would not be defending his position.

“Most of the delegates are practical about whom they support. Nobody wants to put the bet on the losing horse.

“I can say almost half of them in Penang are likely to throw their support behind Liow now,” he said.

However, some argue the tables can easily be turned against Liow if another contender with strong grassroots support joins in the fray further fragmenting the support base.

There is talks that some supporters of Dr Chua are unhappy with his decision not to defend the presidency and are working behind the scene put up a strong candidate to contest the party’s top post.

However, a party insider pointed out should that happen it would only further strengthen Liow’s position and weaken other candidates.

This is because the move only further splits the support base among those who are contesting against Liow.

“As far as I’m concerned, Liow is just one step closer to the presidency. His support is already strong and will not be much affected even if there is another strong contender for the post,” said Ma.

-Bernama